Emerging Data Suggests Potential Bear Market Ahead

Following the crypto market crash on October 10, a bearish sentiment has dominated, with on-chain data indicating a continued decline in digital asset prices. Bitcoin (BTC), for instance, is nearing one of its worst weekly performances of the year, having recorded a 6% drop over the past seven days. 

The leading cryptocurrency has fallen below the critical $100,000 mark for four consecutive days. If this downward trend persists and is confirmed in the coming days, it could exacerbate selling pressure and further instill fear in the market, potentially leading to broader price declines.

Short-Term Weakness Likely To Persist

Taking a broader view, the market presents a mixed picture. Solana (SOL) has decreased by 20% year-to-date, while Chainlink (LINK) has suffered a 33% drop. 

Although Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum (ETH) have seen some gains this year, they have not outperformed the stock market, which has risen by 14% during the same period.

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Interestingly, October also recorded the highest weekly inflow into global crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with $5.9 billion entering in the first week alone, primarily driven by Bitcoin and significant allocations to Ethereum. However, this has failed to result in new recoveries for these assets. 

Recent announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicate that it will cease quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, accompanied by an interest rate cut. This change is expected to inject more liquidity into the crypto financial system. 

However, analysts at The Motley Fool caution that while increased liquidity does not guarantee higher cryptocurrency prices, the cessation of QT removes a persistent headwind. 

They argue that although the environment in October felt bleak, the policy outlook suggests a more favorable climate moving forward. This makes it hard to predict a deep bear market in crypto at this juncture, although short-term weakness is likely to persist for some time.

Crypto Market Struggles For Stability

While the recent selloff has affected the entire market, the most significant losses have been among altcoins. Augustine Fan, a partner at SignalPlus, noted that aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, the broader crypto market has been struggling for months, with minimal new investments flowing into alt-tokens or decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. 

He highlighted that, without new catalysts and amid ongoing concerns regarding security and regulation, mainstream participation in the market is likely to remain subdued.

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Jeff Mei, the chief operating officer of crypto exchange BTSE, attributed the latest dip in digital assets partly to worries that artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are overvalued. 

He warned that if a selloff occurs in artificial intelligence and tech stocks, Bitcoin could potentially fall below the $100,000 threshold, with altcoins likely to experience even steeper declines.

When writing, Bitcoin managed to recover above the $103,000 mark. Yet, the leading crypto is still 18% below all-time high levels of $126,000 reached just days before the infamous market crash on October 10. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com